Wednesday, November 5, 2008

The Day After...

So what's the landscape look like this morning?

First, it looks like Obama has won the popular vote by about 6-6.5% or so, which is on the low end of the spectrum from the last set of polls, but still commanding. To put it into perspective, it's smaller than Clinton's win over Dole in 1996 but larger than Clinton's win over Bush in 1992.

Total votes cast will be somewhere north of 135 million, about 15 million more than 2004 (which was the previous record for most votes cast). Turnout nationwide was about 65%, "the highest in generations." I'm too lazy to dig for the turnout numbers of past elections; if anyone wants to do that and post it in the comments section, you're welcome to.

Of the swing states, Obama won New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Florida. McCain won Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona and Nebraska's 2nd District. Neither Missouri nor North Carolina have been called yet; McCain's ahead by about 6000 votes in the former, Obama leads by about 12k in the latter.

Illinois representative Rahm Emmanuel, a former staffer in for President Clinton and architect of the 2006 midterm tidal wave that swept so many republicans out of congress, will be Obama's Chief of Staff. That should give folks an idea of how Obama will govern (center-left).

Obama and Biden leave their senate seats, and both slots will be appointed by the respective state's governor. Jesse Jackson, Jr. has the inside track on Obama's seat, while Biden's is up in the air, though his son Beau (AG of Delaware and a Captain in the Delaware ANG, currently serving in Iraq) is the early leader out of the gate.

The Democrats have picked up at least 5 seats in the senate, which is good in a vacuum but disappointing in the greater scope of the election. The most disappointing results were in Oregon, where moderate republican Gordon Smith looks like he's held off Jeff Merkley; Alaska, where octogenarian convicted felon Ted Stevens somehow retained his seat ahead of Marc Begich (the hottest seller in Alaska right now is a t-shirt that says "Vote for Ted Until He's Dead"); and Minnesota, where Norm Coleman is ahead of Al Franken by about 600 votes. That one is headed for a recount and won't be solved until next month, is my guess.

The Dems have picked up somewhere between 15-25 seats in the House, a good night but not epoch-making. Included in the carnage, though, was Christopher Shays of Fairfield County - New England's last republican congressman. Fake America says F**K YOU to small town elitism.

Here in New York, the democrats control the state legislature for the first time since the 1930s. Final tally looks something like 32-27, but there's still vote wrangling.

Some of the stuff I've enjoyed reading this morning:

Obama's Win: A Death-Knell For 1960s Cultural Politics? - TPM
Fight for GOP’s identity begins - TheHill
Republicans Ponder Path to Renewal After Party Suffers a Harsh Setback - WSJ
Reality Suspended, Until It Prevailed - Washington Post
Reactions From Around the World - NY Times

I may be back to post more later, or I may just go back to sleep. After all, campaigning for the 2010 midterms starts tomorrow - gotta get some rest!

EDIT: And sadly, Prop 8 passed in California. The voting internals are here, and paint a pretty revealing picture.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Inexcusably, Prop 8 won in Los Angeles fucking County. I doubt West Hollywood will phone in an election ever again.

I'm sure you read that the county where Sarah Palin made her "real America" crack went to Obama by the tune of 58-40.

Hard to comprehend what a historic day yesterday was. Despite the Donks giving away a few seats (dammit, Franken, if you can't beat a clown like Coleman go back to Air America), and despite the hideous anti-gay propositions in CA and Florida, this is one of those times where what comes after is totally different than what came before.